Why Is Rice So Expensive?
How a policy created a crisis.
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In 2025, the price of rice went up again and made life difficult for many families.
Rice even disappeared from supermarket shelves, and the price went over 800 yen per kilogram. This became big news. The reason behind this problem is the government’s long and complicated rice policy. In this article, we will look at the heart of the issue.
Japan’s farmers have followed the government’s rice policies for many years, even though they were not legally forced to do so. In 2025, the government suddenly changed its plan from increasing rice production to reducing it.
At the same time, the government decided to give out “rice coupons” to help people deal with rising prices. Many people asked if giving cash would be better, and some even raised concerns about possible connections between politicians and certain industries.
1. Japan’s Rice and the Government: The Legacy of the Reduction Policy
After World War II, Japan controlled rice production and prices. In 1971, the government started the “rice reduction policy” to stop farmers from producing too much rice and to keep prices stable.
Farmers were encouraged to leave part of their rice fields unused or grow other crops like soybeans or wheat instead. In return, they received subsidies from the government.
This protected rice prices and supported farmers’ income for about fifty years. Even though the policy officially ended in 2018, the farming system still depends heavily on subsidies.
The reduction policy was voluntary, so farmers followed it for other reasons. The answer is simple: subsidies are their lifeline. If farmers do not follow the policy, they lose subsidies and cannot continue their business.
The agricultural cooperative, JA, also strongly supports government policies, so farmers feel they have no real choice, even though it is officially “voluntary.”
Subsidies can be worth tens of thousands of yen per hectare, so many farmers joined the policy.
However, reducing rice fields also reduced Japan’s ability to produce rice. This led to the rice shortage in 2025.
Some farmers now say, “We can’t produce any more. This is the price we are paying for the reduction policy.” The government talks about food security, but it also uses farmers as tools to keep rice prices high.
2. The Sudden Policy Change in 2025: From Dreaming of More Rice to Reality of Less
In 2025, Japan’s rice policy changed direction several times. Former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba tried to solve the rice shortage by increasing production. He set the production target for 2025 at 7.48 million tons and encouraged farmers to grow more rice.
However, only three months after Sanae Takaichi became prime minister, the plan changed again. Her agriculture minister, Norikazu Suzuki, said production should match demand. The target for 2026 was lowered to 7.11 million tons, a reduction of 370,000 tons from the previous year.
Why did the government change its mind so quickly? The price of rice stayed high. If farmers produce too much, prices might fall and hurt their income. Even Ishiba admitted that production control is not always a good thing.
Farmers say the constant policy changes make it difficult to trust the government. Protecting rice prices has become more important.
Many farmers are disappointed. They say their chance to sell more rice overseas has been lost. This unstable policy, sometimes referred to as “cat’s-eye agriculture,” creates anxiety for everyone who buys or produces rice.
3. The Truth About Rice Coupons: How Much, How Often, and Do They Work?
To deal with high rice prices, the 2025 supplementary budget included a plan to distribute rice coupons. The government suggested 3,000 yen per person. Local governments use national funds to send out these coupons.
For example, one coupon is worth 500 yen, but only 440 yen can actually be used to buy rice. The remaining 60 yen goes towards printing, delivery costs, and other expenses.
Most places give out the coupons only once. In some areas, a family of three receives 8,800 yen worth of coupons, while others give 2,200 yen per household.
Distribution is scheduled to take place between December 2025 and February 2026.
However, not all cities are participating. Some say it is too much work. More than 90 local governments are unsure about joining.
One-time assistance is not enough.
4. The Problems with Rice Coupons: Would Cash Be Better? Who Benefits?
On social media, many people say they would prefer to receive cash. Cash can be used for electricity bills and other foods.
Printing and delivery costs also reduce the real value of each coupon, so people receive only about 88% of what the government spends.
Opposition parties say cash is easier to understand and more useful. There are also rumors about connections between politicians and businesses. The extra 60 yen per coupon goes to JA and printing companies.
Some critics say this system benefits certain industries: the government reduces rice production to keep prices high, and then hands out rice coupons that bring more money to same industries.
This looks like a system made to profit from both the problem and the solution. Some business leaders have openly accused the agriculture ministry and agriculture groups of having close ties.
Minister Suzuki says the coupons are meant to help people buy rice, but this explanation has not convinced the public.
Conclusion: Japan Needs Real Rice Policy Reform
The rice problems of 2025 show how government policies have trapped both farmers and consumers. The legacy of the reduction policy has damaged rice supply, sudden changes in direction cause confusion, and rice coupons seem like a temporary fix that benefits special interests.
Japan needs to move away from subsidies and allow farmers to produce rice more freely. Giving cash or cutting taxes would help families directly, and expanding exports could strengthen agriculture.
However, Prime Minister Takaichi promised President Trump that Japan would purchase more American rice. The author believes Japan should produce as much of its own food as possible.
What do you think?
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A different article published on Substack